Friday, April 18, 2008

Angry Science Lesson One: Regression in Karma

Over the course of the last 35 years I have become a firm believer in karma – sort of. Honestly I am cynical and only believe in the dark side of karma – the one that says for each negative action you take there will be negative payback later, not necessarily of equal value.

I could give countless examples but the one I always remember is the one that ended with a $16,000 medical bill for me. Damn, I will never do that again. Nope, ain’t gonna tell you what induced that payback.

Being a firm believer in negative payback, last year I came up with my own theory. It goes something like this: for every naughty thing I do while riding on my bike, I will receive negative payback while on my bike. More specifically, I speculated that every time I flip someone in a car the bird I will get a flat tire. The theory is based on some personal anecdotal observations that I made last fall. I call it the Melmer Theorem.

I decided that I would test the Melmer Theorem this year. I have been keeping track of how many birds I flip, and how many flat tires I get (see my ticker to the right)? At random times I record the data for my plot – it has got to be random because this is science you know. OK, well actually it wasn’t quite random and this really isn’t science but here is what I have come up with so far…



Clearly there is a strong relationship between the number of birds flipped and the number of flat tires received. I fear however, that my research may be biased since I have made an effort this year to flip fewer birds (because I have worn my team kit more often – no one needs sponsored birds). Only 3 birds so far this year, that is excellent for me.

Anyhow, I will continue to track this and feel confident that I will scientifically prove karma once and for all.

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